2016 Electoral College Map Projections: Texas, Georgia Now Toss-Ups?
With less than two weeks to go until the election day, Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton is dominating Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the polling.
Echoing a trend found for the past few weeks, multiple election forecast sites have predicted a sweeping electoral college victory for the former secretary of state.
As Trump's Republican support continues to fracture, states that have consistently gone Republican for decades have become competitive.
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1. Real Clear Politics
In keeping with the trend this month, Real Clear Politics' "no toss-ups" map predicts a Clinton victory in the electoral college, with her getting 333 electoral points to Trump's 205 electoral points.
RCP's "toss-ups" map puts 140 electoral points up for grabs, with Clinton having secured 272 points, and Trump securing 126. This means that even if Trump were to win all the toss-ups on the map, he would still narrowly lose the election.
Texas and Georgia, two states that have gone Republican for the past several elections, are both labeled "toss-up" states in the latest RCP map.
While the polling sources RCP used for Texas have Trump winning the Lone Star State, some of these polls put his lead within the margin of error.
The "toss-up" map put Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia in the "Leans Clinton" category, while Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina were labeled "Toss up" and not given to either candidate.
2. Polly Vote
Polly Vote's election forecast predicts an overwhelming victory for the Clinton campaign, with Clinton getting 347 electoral points and Trump getting 191 electoral points.
Accessed Wednesday morning, the Polly Vote map is largely identical to its projections made last week, with Clinton being project to win with 347 to Trump's 191.
One notable difference between this week's map and last week's was that last week North Carolina and Virginia were classified as "Lean Democrat." This week they are "Safe Democrat."
In contrast to Real Clear Politics, Polly Vote classifies Texas and Georgia as "Safe Republican." Arizona was classified as "Lean Republican" and Iowa as "Lean Democrat."
The popular vote forecast by Polly Vote shows a trend of increasingly upward support for Clinton and increasingly downward support for Trump.
As of Wednesday morning, Polly Vote has Clinton winning 54.2 percent of the popular vote while Trump is projected to win 45.8 percent of the popular vote.
3. Five Thirty Eight
The site FiveThirtyEight showcases a major Clinton victory, stating that Clinton has an 84.6 percent chance of winning and Trump has a 15.4 percent chance of winning.
This is a slight decrease in odds for Clinton, who last week FiveThirtyEight gave an 86.2 percent chance of winning and Trump a 13.7 percent chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight predicts that Clinton will get 332.4 electoral points, Trump will get 204.5 electoral points, Independent Conservative nominee Evan McMullin will get 1.0 electoral points, and Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson will get 0.1 electoral points.
The site also predicts Clinton will get 49.5 percent of the popular vote, Trump will get 43.5 percent of the popular vote, Johnson will get 5.4 percent of the popular vote, and other candidates will get 1.6 percent of the popular vote.
