2018 Midterm Election Polls: Final Predictions

By Michael Gryboski, Mainline Church Editor Monday, November 05, 2018

House

The Democrats' chances of controlling the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010 are strong, according to FiveThirtyEight.

In data updated on Monday morning, the site gave Democrats an 87.4 percent chance of regaining control of the House, versus a 12.6 percent chance that Republicans will retain.

This forecast states that the Democrats have an 80 percent chance of gaining between 21 and 59 seats as well as a 10 percent chance they will gain more than 59 seats.

Since August, FiveThirtyEight has forecasted a Democrat takeover of the House, with their chances during that time never going below 70 percent.

The Center for Politics predicts Democrats will pick up 34 seats, 11 more than the 23 they need to gain control of the House.

RealClearPolitics' "Battle for the House 2018" map, accessed Monday, gave Democrats 202 seats, Republicans 194 seats, and listed 39 as "toss-ups."

These numbers represent a decline for both parties in certainty compared to last week, when RCP gave the Democrats 205 seats, the Republicans 200 seats, and listed only 30 seats as "toss-ups."