Polling shows Harris doing better than Biden nationally, weaker in some swing states
With President Joe Biden out of the 2024 presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the choice of some Democrats to succeed him, polling paints a conflicting picture as to whether replacing Biden with Harris would actually help Democrats keep the White House.
Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday afternoon, less than a month before the Democratic National Convention is slated to kick off in Chicago, Illinois. The president’s departure comes amid low polling and approval numbers as well as concerns about his mental health and ability to do the job in light of his advanced age.
The president endorsed Harris as his successor, as did many other prominent Democrats. Even before Biden pulled the plug on his reelection bid, limited polling had been conducted of possible matchups between Harris and the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, in anticipation of such a possibility.
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The RealClearPolitics average of national polls asking voters who they intend to support in the 2024 presidential race, based on surveys conducted between June 28 and July 16, showed Trump beating Biden by 3.0 percentage points, securing 47.7% of the vote to Biden’s 44.7%.
When given the option to choose between Trump and Biden as well as independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s lead over Biden increased to 3.7 percentage points.
In a hypothetical five-way race, Trump captured 43.1% support, followed by Biden at 39.4%, Kennedy at 8.5%, Stein at 2% and West at 1%. By contrast, Trump only leads Harris by 1.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of the limited polling conducted of such a hypothetical matchup between June 28 and July 18. The average shows Trump with 48% of the vote and Harris at 46.3%.
In a five-way race between Trump, Harris, Kennedy, West and Stein, Trump leads Harris by a larger margin than he did Biden. Trump bests Harris by 5 percentage points, securing 43.5% of the vote to Harris’ 38.5%, Kennedy’s 10.5%, Stein’s 2% and West’s 1.5%.
While national polling can provide an indication of the mood of the American electorate, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be determined by the results in individual states. In Georgia, one of several swing states that will decide the outcome of the race, Trump led Biden by 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average based on polls conducted between May 30 and July 16. In terms of vote share, Trump was at 46.2%, while Biden was at 42.2%.
An average of two polls conducted in the past two weeks shows Trump beating Harris by 7.5 percentage points in Georgia. Trump’s support was measured at 49%, with Harris at 41.5%. Georgia, narrowly won by Biden in the 2020 presidential election, has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
In Pennsylvania, Trump led Biden by 4.5 percentage points, with his support measured at 47.8% and Biden’s pegged at 43.3%. Limited polling shows Harris performing slightly better against Trump in the state, trailing by 4 points with 43.5% to Trump’s 47.5%. Pennsylvania was also won by Biden in 2020 and has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
While RealClearPolitics has not officially created averages for polls of a Trump-Harris contest in the remaining swing states, the website does include individual polls from each state. In Arizona, three polls listed show Harris trailing Trump by 6, 8 and 5 percentage points, with her support ranging from 40%-43%. Trump’s support was measured at 48% in all three polls.
Before Biden dropped out, he was trailing Trump by 5.8 percentage points with the former president leading his successor 47.4% to 41.6%. Arizona, narrowly won by Biden four years ago, has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
In Michigan, the only poll of a Trump-Harris matchup featured on the RealClearPolitics website, shows Harris beating Trump by 2 points, 48% to 46%. By contrast, Biden trailed Trump by 2.1 percentage points, with Trump leading Biden 44% to 41.9%. Michigan was carried by Biden in 2020 and has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
In three polls sampling public opinion of a Trump-Harris contest in Nevada, the former president’s lead ranges from 8 to 10 percentage points. Trump’s share of the vote ranged from 48%-50% while Harris’ was as low as 39% and as high as 42%. Polls of a Trump-Biden contest showed Trump leading Biden by 5.6 percentage points, 47.2% to 41.6%. Nevada, another state Biden won in 2020, has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.
In North Carolina, the only poll of a Trump-Harris matchup shows Trump at 50% with Harris at 41%, a lead of 9 percentage points. In a race between Trump and Biden, Trump had 47.2% compared to Biden’s 41.5%, a lead of 5.7 percentage points. North Carolina, the only swing state won by Trump in 2020, has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Two polls taken in Wisconsin show Trump at 48%, while Harris either had 47% or 46% support, indicating leads of 1 and 2 points, respectively. By contrast, Trump led Biden by an average of 3.3 percentage points, 46.6% to 43.3%. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
In terms of favorability numbers, Harris finds herself underwater, as do Biden and Trump. Biden has an approval rating of 40.1%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls measuring his job performance. With a disapproval rating of 57.2, Biden is 17.1 percentage points underwater.
The president’s favorability numbers showed a similar result, with just 39.1% of the American public giving him a “favorable” rating and 56.6% viewing him unfavorably; making him 17.5 percentage points underwater. Harris is also viewed unfavorably by a majority of the American people (52.3%), while the share of the American people who view her favorably is lower than that of Biden (38.1%). However, she is only 14.2 percentage points underwater.
Trump has a high unfavorable rating as well (53.7%), but his favorability (42.8%) is higher than that of both Biden and Harris, and his net unfavorability rating is lower (10.9%).
While many Democrats jumped on board to support Harris after Biden bowed out, former President Barack Obama did not and signaled support for creating “a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.” Obama’s decision not to endorse Harris suggests that concerns remain about Harris’ viability as a candidate.
Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: [email protected]
