7 people who predicted Trump's victory

By Michael Gryboski, Mainline Church Editor Friday, November 08, 2024

Nate Silver

Voters cast ballots at the Fairfax County Government Center on November 02, 2021, in Fairfax, Virginia. | Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla

Nate Silver, a prominent pollster and election forecaster, predicted that Trump had a slightly higher chance than Harris to win the election, though he believed the final result would be very close.

“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” wrote Silver in an op-ed for The New York Times last month.

“But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”

Regarding polls showing Trump trailing Harris, Silver speculated that “nonresponsive bias” might be at work, noting that pollsters might not be sufficiently reaching out to Trump supporters.

“Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization,” he wrote.